我国电(dian)煤购买单(dan)价系数（CECI）编制数办室室公布(bu)的《CECI指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)值数据分(fen)(fen)析周报》（2025年(nian)第(di)6期）显现(xian)(xian)，CECI近海指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)值中发烧(shao)值煤种现(xian)(xian)货(huo)黄金黄金出(chu)单(dan)定(ding)(ding)价的传(chuan)承大幅度减少(shao)。曹妃甸指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)值快速(su)下进(jin)行。进(jin)口清(qing)关(guan)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)值各(ge)的规格品(pin)煤种现(xian)(xian)货(huo)黄金黄金出(chu)单(dan)定(ding)(ding)价均有各(ge)种能力下进(jin)行。CECI购(gou)进(jin)营销运营总监指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)值间隔六(liu)期所处(chu)回缩(suo)范围(wei)，分(fen)(fen)项工程指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)值中，全部的分(fen)(fen)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)值均所处(chu)回缩(suo)范围(wei)，市场出(chu)清(qing)和(he)标(biao)准分(fen)(fen)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)值提高变高，库存(cun)管理、定(ding)(ding)价和(he)水运分(fen)(fen)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)值提高减少(shao)。

一、市场情况综述

原(yuan)(yuan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)导热(re)油(you)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)育方位，随新春(chun)佳节暑假后各加工(gong)业陆陆续续动工(gong)开产，发(fa)剩(sheng)(sheng)余储电量(liang)、耗(hao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)量(liang)和入厂煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)量(liang)相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)扩(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)一(yi)直加快(kuai)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)涨(zhang)，但复原(yuan)(yuan)速(su)(su)(su)(su)度(du)慢略缓(huan)于前年(nian)(nian)旧(jiu)历去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同时期。集(ji)中供(gong)暖(nuan)量(liang)相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)扩(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)常见增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)，煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)导热(re)油(you)销量(liang)相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)扩(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)一(yi)直减少(shao)，但仍(reng)处去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同时期位高。通过中电联(lian)燃剂数(shu)据(ju)汇总分析(xi)数(shu)据(ju)表(biao)格，这期编入电力能源(yuan)领域(yu)燃剂数(shu)据(ju)汇总分析(xi)的来发(fa)电集(ji)团电话原(yuan)(yuan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)导热(re)油(you)平(ping)均(jun)发(fa)剩(sheng)(sheng)余储电量(liang)相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)扩(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)22.6%，相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)扩(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)31.8%。平(ping)均(jun)集(ji)中供(gong)暖(nuan)量(liang)相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)扩(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)0.7%，相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)扩(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)47.5%。平(ping)均(jun)电煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)耗(hao)量(liang)相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)扩(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)18.1%，相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)扩(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)27.6%。里面，海(hai)路运输车导热(re)油(you)平(ping)均(jun)耗(hao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)量(liang)相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)扩(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)54.9%，相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)扩(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)68.0%；平(ping)均(jun)入厂煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)量(liang)相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)扩(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)5.1%，相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)扩(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)7.2%。原(yuan)(yuan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)导热(re)油(you)存(cun)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)108715万吨，相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)扩(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)7100万吨。

图1  燃煤电厂周均发电量走势图

图2  燃煤电厂电煤库存走势图

国(guo)(guo)内外媒(mei)碳主出产(chan)地方便，大那部(bu)分国(guo)(guo)有控(kong)股(gu)矿井(jing)提高一(yi)切(qie)正常产(chan)出和业务(wu)员，绝大部(bu)分民企(qi)煤企(qi)相(xiang)(xiang)继完全恢复至春节日前生产(chan)量方式，媒(mei)碳局部(bu)性供(gong)给持续保持回落(luo)。近第(di)一(yi)阶(jie)段供(gong)电局、化工(gong)机械(xie)、矿冶(ye)等中小型企(qi)业货(huo)源(yuan)相(xiang)(xiang)对充(chong)分，洗煤厂、对外供(gong)应(ying)商多持犹(you)疑价(jia)值观，多以需要售价(jia)诱惑采购流程主，坑口(kou)局部(bu)性拉运相(xiang)(xiang)对阴(yin)冷，堆砌(qi)新型集(ji)团简介调整(zheng)购进价(jia)及(ji)集(ji)装(zhuang)箱码(ma)头售价(jia)，坑口(kou)市场上(shang)现(xian)货(huo)交易售价(jia)立即弱稳运转。

海港(gang)(gang)卖(mai)场(chang)地方，近期(qi)内大秦跌(die)路运(yun)(yun)量(liang)已可以恢(hui)复至单日小夏吨(dun)关卡(ka)，因(yin)之近海变电所仍(reng)以刚度和(he)强度拉运(yun)(yun)还有(you)耗电量(liang)政治意识货(huo)(huo)存盘(pan)点(dian)相结合，半数以上具体海港(gang)(gang)调(diao)为(wei)量(liang)低(di)于调(diao)出量(liang)，海港(gang)(gang)货(huo)(huo)存盘(pan)点(dian)继续(xu)超额，贸(mao)易(yi)(yi)服务商交货(huo)(huo)积极进(jin)取(qu)，多少钱(qian)行情导致(zhi)大幅度摔松，但海港(gang)(gang)卖(mai)场(chang)煤(mei)交易(yi)(yi)量(liang)量(liang)偏少，现货(huo)(huo)交易(yi)(yi)交易(yi)(yi)量(liang)多少钱(qian)弱稳运(yun)(yun)营。

合理来看看，随(sui)各文化产业(ye)开工投产稳中有进深(shen)入推进，燃(ran)煤(mei)锅炉火(huo)电厂(chang)发电容(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)、耗煤(mei)量(liang)(liang)(liang)和入厂(chang)煤(mei)量(liang)(liang)(liang)马(ma)上(shang)回(hui)暖(nuan)，传统的煤(mei)炭主產地制造不间断恢愎，海(hai)(hai)航运(yun)调(diao)职量(liang)(liang)(liang)大于等于调(diao)为量(liang)(liang)(liang)，库(ku)存商品不间断累计，坑口和海(hai)(hai)航运(yun)期(qi)货黄金餐饮市场的表(biao)现平(ping)平(ping)，犹豫情感仍日趋强大，期(qi)货黄金出单(dan)收(shou)费马(ma)上(shang)弱稳作(zuo)业(ye)。

二、CECI指数分析

CECI沿海指数5500千卡/千克和5000千卡/千克现货成交价较上期分别下降2元/吨、1元/吨。从样本情况看，5500千卡/千克规格品现货成交价样本价格区间为750-760元/吨，5000千卡/千克规格品现货成交价样本价格为670元/吨。从样本热值分布看，4500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克、5500千卡/千克样本在总量中占比分别为49.0％、32.7％、18.3％。

图3  CECI沿海指数综合价走势图

CECI曹妃甸指数5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克和4500千卡/千克平均价格分别为757.5元/吨、665.3元/吨和580元/吨，电煤现货价格持续下跌，各规格品本周价格平均值比上周分别下降2.5元/吨、2.7元/吨和2元/吨。现货交易日均总数量基本持平，其中5500千卡/千克、4500千卡/千克样本数量略有减少，5000千卡/千克样本数量略有增加。

图4  CECI曹妃甸指数走势图

CECI进口指数到岸标煤单价818元/吨，较上期下降7元/吨，环比下降0.8%。现货价格中，各规格品热值进口煤现货价格均有不同幅度下降，其中太仓港（灵便型）5500千卡/千克价格环比下降14元/吨，广州港（巴拿马型）3800千卡/千克价格环比下降6元/吨。印尼斋月即将来临，加之低热值规格品采购需求增加，外矿报价稍显坚挺。但国内电煤现货市场阴跌走弱，沿海电煤供需格局整体宽松，以低价采购为主，进口贸易商竞价压力较大，实际成交量一般，招投标价格延续弱稳运行。

表1  CECI进口指数

CECI采购经理人指数连续6期处于收缩区间。其中，供给分指数连续6期处于收缩区间，表明电煤供给量继续下降，降幅有所收窄。需求分指数连续6期处于收缩区间，表明电煤需求量继续下降，降幅有所收窄。库存分指数连续6期处于收缩区间，表明电煤库存量继续下降，降幅有所扩大。价格分指数连续4期处于收缩区间，表明电格再不断变(bian)低，同(tong)比无(wu)所(suo)(suo)不为提升。海运(yun)业分指数公式持(chi)续10期保持(chi)收拢范围内，证明(ming)电(dian)煤海运(yun)业价值再不断变(bian)低，同(tong)比无(wu)所(suo)(suo)不为提升。

表2  CECI采购经理人指数

三、相关信息和建议

要根据(ju)住建部物(wu)流(liu)配(pei)货(huo)快(kuai)运保通保畅接待室(shi)(shi)邻(lin)导队伍接待室(shi)(shi)室(shi)(shi)检测分类(lei)汇总数据(ju)分析，6月3日(ri)(ri)-6月9日(ri)(ri)，山(shan)东省产品搬家(jia)物(wu)流(liu)配(pei)货(huo)快(kuai)运依规运营，在这其中：国家(jia)的(de)铁道连续额(e)搬家(jia)产品6989亿(yi)吨，同(tong)比生(sheng)长率生(sheng)长7.49%；山(shan)东省快(kuai)速二级公路连续额(e)车辆停放2596.10万辆，同(tong)比生(sheng)长率生(sheng)长176.94%。

结合中电联电业的(de)(de)行业能源数(shu)据(ju)统计(ji)分析数(shu)，截(jie)止期(qi)二月14日，并入(ru)数(shu)据(ju)统计(ji)分析数(shu)的(de)(de)火力发(fa)电投资集团烧(shao)煤(mei)水(shui)(shui)水(shui)(shui)热(re)电厂(chang)本(ben)累积(ji)火力发(fa)耗(hao)充电电流今年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)基(ji)期(qi)减(jian)退(tui)2.3%，本(ben)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度累积(ji)火力发(fa)耗(hao)充电电流今年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)基(ji)期(qi)减(jian)退(tui)13.9%。烧(shao)煤(mei)水(shui)(shui)水(shui)(shui)热(re)电厂(chang)耗(hao)煤(mei)量本(ben)累积(ji)今年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)基(ji)期(qi)减(jian)退(tui)1%，本(ben)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度累积(ji)今年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)基(ji)期(qi)减(jian)退(tui)11%。烧(shao)煤(mei)水(shui)(shui)水(shui)(shui)热(re)电厂(chang)山西(xi)煤(mei)炭销量高出今年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)基(ji)期(qi)730万吨，销量可日期(qi)较本(ben)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)基(ji)期(qi)增高4.7天。

截至目前，环渤海港口库存总量超2800万吨，周环比增加200万吨，远高于去年同期水平。后期来看，产地生产继续恢复，但考虑到3月上旬重要会议召开，预计2月底3月初产地煤矿安检力度将持续较大，煤矿整体产能利用率或难以恢复至节前水平。北方港口调入方面，矿方向港口的发运将继续恢复，北港调入量将增加，但考虑到发运倒挂、淡季预期等因素，贸易商向港口发运的煤炭数量增长空间或受限。随着下游企业陆续复工复产，非电采购增加，后期北港调出量也将增加，预计短期内北港库存将高位小幅减少。综合判断，短期动力煤市场将延续偏弱格局。建议电力企业及时关注跟踪相关政策走向、国内外市场环境变化和进口煤相关政策等，分析预测用电负荷增长及电煤需求，科学合理制定后续采购计划及库存策略。